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20120924
20120924
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you think dick morris is right? he says latinos increased their share by 1.5%. he says if you use that same model for this election and assume you will have the same turnouts from blacks, latinos and young kids, you will be off in your results. >> we just don't know the answer. that is, if all groups are depressed in their turnout as seems likely. the black or latino share will be about the same. young people probably will go down. they are showing less interests. but we can't say with specificity what dick is asserting. megyn: what are you supposed to do? >> both of us -- political pollsters screen and likeliness to vote, interest, intensity and where you are. we have in 2004 a split country. we had about an 8-point advantage for democrats in 2000. i can't imagine it being as good or better. if it is, republicans are going down across the board. >> we try to use a variety of different scenarios. even party, slight democratic advantage. bigger democratic advantage then look at differen different altes and advice accordingly. megyn: is there a finger on the poll? there was a hit pi
pollsters. doug schoen is the former advisor to bill clinton. dick morris who was once president clinton's pollster. but he's not a fan of the clintons anymore. but he writes this long piece talking about how the republicans are getting depressed under an after land much of polling that shows president obama ahead but she you shouldn't be because the pollsters are using a variance of the 2008 polling model that he says overstates the likelihood of success. >> it could. the truth is we don't know what the turnouts of democrats and republicans will be. but would i say this. dick it right in so far as most of the media polls are using -- are optimistic for the democratic party. as a professional pollster you try to be as cautious as possible in advising your clients. but most of the polls getting released are giving president obama the benefit of the doubt. megyn: why would they do that? if it says it's -- i don't understand why any pollster would want anything hotter than the most accurate results. >> what accurate is is often open to debate. the dirty little secret of polling is with cell
Search Results 0 to 1 of about 2

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